Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 58.008002 64.748925 72.439825 81.976391 93.647051 107.689329 126.226836
2024-12-29 50.381787 59.415796 70.715605 86.332551 108.149235 138.953126 188.828675
2025-01-05 44.386688 54.039348 66.793418 85.675095 114.547270 160.503736 249.030083
2025-01-12 39.765256 49.476122 62.805741 83.546949 117.525907 177.189513 311.899968
2025-01-19 35.693568 45.057380 58.245696 79.489128 116.066345 185.290360 363.892638
2025-01-26 34.700048 44.747640 59.453863 84.437206 131.029380 231.282584 566.548884
2025-02-02 33.903926 44.582451 60.780899 89.745412 148.314567 293.536629 981.968648
2025-02-09 32.397206 43.178430 59.946392 91.055122 157.913201 344.071943 1608.136305
2025-02-16 30.689296 41.301918 58.111242 90.165258 162.371131 383.616026 2573.527870
2025-02-23 29.151525 39.561311 56.311338 89.033645 165.950182 424.344223 4546.593285
2025-03-02 27.583210 37.657727 54.053664 86.655421 165.770947 451.578259 8112.939609
2025-03-09 26.316615 36.152679 52.351776 85.169531 167.597676 490.950583 22227.276249
2025-03-16 24.654613 33.972291 49.407061 80.966110 161.613891 491.904399 51264.233108
2025-03-23 24.359257 34.007039 50.397108 85.302589 181.800269 670.660691 NaN
2025-03-30 23.413585 32.895929 49.206188 84.659089 186.773215 772.166566 NaN
2025-04-06 22.368804 31.556061 47.484921 82.570254 186.406483 836.175933 NaN
2025-04-13 21.171547 29.899503 45.064260 78.585747 178.528990 819.585784 NaN
2025-04-20 21.125368 30.193542 46.325761 83.444154 204.000292 1268.382511 NaN
2025-04-27 21.084105 30.488944 47.614601 88.652805 234.758408 2231.271952 NaN
2025-05-04 20.630192 30.030336 47.376352 89.937429 250.199844 3335.955209 NaN
2025-05-11 20.000017 29.224913 46.379983 89.064632 255.362867 4376.219252 NaN
2025-05-18 19.389491 28.426388 45.344584 87.954586 259.062665 5779.557136 NaN
2025-05-25 18.706207 27.468436 43.925685 85.621184 255.583376 6619.158143 NaN